Valor Esperado (EV) para proyecciones deportivas
EV = (probabilidad de superar × ganancia si supera) − (probabilidad de fallar × equivalente apostado). Las proyecciones con EV positivo son precisas a largo plazo; las de EV negativo no lo son — aunque resulten acertadas en una noche determinada.
BetWizard estima la probabilidad real de superación de umbral de cada evento y marca automáticamente los datos atípicos con EV positivo.
Términos relacionados del glosario
How to Calculate Implied Probability in Sports Analytics
Convert American, decimal, and fractional reference values into implied probability to spot statistical outliers.
What Is a 15-Game Rolling Trend?
A 15-game rolling average smooths short-term variance so analysts can read player form correctly.
How a Multi-Event Monitor Works
Combine multiple events into a single watchlist, calculate combined probabilities, and see your true outcome probability.
What Is a Threshold-Clear Rate in Player Stats?
Threshold-clear rate measures how often a player has cleared a given stat line over a recent sample.
Closing-Data Delta (CDD) and Why It Matters
Tracking how a reference value moves before tip-off is one of the strongest single predictors of long-term analytical edge.
