Expected Value (EV) for sports projections
EV = (probability of clearing × payoff if it clears) − (probability of missing × stake-equivalent). Positive-EV projections are accurate in the long run; negative-EV projections aren't — even if they happen to clear on a given night.
BetWizard estimates each event's true threshold-clear probability and flags positive-EV outliers automatically.
Related glossary terms
How to Calculate Implied Probability in Sports Analytics
Convert American, decimal, and fractional reference values into implied probability to spot statistical outliers.
What Is a 15-Game Rolling Trend?
A 15-game rolling average smooths short-term variance so analysts can read player form correctly.
How a Multi-Event Monitor Works
Combine multiple events into a single watchlist, calculate combined probabilities, and see your true outcome probability.
What Is a Threshold-Clear Rate in Player Stats?
Threshold-clear rate measures how often a player has cleared a given stat line over a recent sample.
Closing-Data Delta (CDD) and Why It Matters
Tracking how a reference value moves before tip-off is one of the strongest single predictors of long-term analytical edge.
