Threshold-clear rate, explained
Threshold-clear rate is the percentage of recent games where a player cleared a given stat threshold. It's the cleanest sanity check on any projection you're researching.
Example: if LeBron James has cleared the 25.5-point threshold in 11 of his last 15 games, his 15-game threshold-clear rate is 73%. Compare that against the reference market's implied probability to find statistical outliers.
Related glossary terms
How to Calculate Implied Probability in Sports Analytics
Convert American, decimal, and fractional reference values into implied probability to spot statistical outliers.
What Is a 15-Game Rolling Trend?
A 15-game rolling average smooths short-term variance so analysts can read player form correctly.
How a Multi-Event Monitor Works
Combine multiple events into a single watchlist, calculate combined probabilities, and see your true outcome probability.
Expected Value (EV) in Sports Analytics Explained
Expected value measures the long-run accuracy of a projection vs the reference market value.
Closing-Data Delta (CDD) and Why It Matters
Tracking how a reference value moves before tip-off is one of the strongest single predictors of long-term analytical edge.
