Converting reference values to implied probability
Reference markets quote values in three formats: American, decimal, and fractional. Implied probability is the break-even rate baked into those values.
American format
For positive values (e.g. +150): 100 / (value + 100). For negative values (e.g. -200): value / (value + 100), using the absolute value.
Decimal format
1 / decimal_value. So 2.50 implies a 40% break-even probability.
Why it matters
If your model thinks a player has a 50% threshold-clear rate, but the reference value implies 42%, that's a positive-EV outlier — exactly what BetWizard's AI Projection Engine is built to surface.
Related glossary terms
What Is a 15-Game Rolling Trend?
A 15-game rolling average smooths short-term variance so analysts can read player form correctly.
How a Multi-Event Monitor Works
Combine multiple events into a single watchlist, calculate combined probabilities, and see your true outcome probability.
What Is a Threshold-Clear Rate in Player Stats?
Threshold-clear rate measures how often a player has cleared a given stat line over a recent sample.
Expected Value (EV) in Sports Analytics Explained
Expected value measures the long-run accuracy of a projection vs the reference market value.
Closing-Data Delta (CDD) and Why It Matters
Tracking how a reference value moves before tip-off is one of the strongest single predictors of long-term analytical edge.
